☀ Key Stats
◆ The annual market value of recovered solar-panel materials could exceed $20 billion by 2050, up from more than $810 million in 2030 and $6 billion in 2040.
◆ The technical potential for annual material recovery could rise from more than 920,000 tonnes in 2030 to 7.6 million tonnes in 2040 and 24 million tonnes in 2050.
◆ The material-recovery estimate assumes recycling of approximately 97% of a solar module’s weight.
◆ Glass is projected to represent 64% of recovered material by weight, followed by polymers at 13% and aluminium at 9%.
◆ Aluminium could provide nearly half of recovered-material value in 2050, followed by silver at 33%, silicon at 11% and copper at 7%.
◆ Cumulative end-of-life solar panels could surpass 200 million tonnes globally by 2050.
◆ Annual solar-panel waste is projected to exceed 3 million tonnes in 2035, 7.8 million tonnes in 2040 and 25 million tonnes in 2050.
◆ Retired solar panels could account for more than 21% of global e-waste by weight in 2050, compared with less than 1% currently.
◆ China, the European Union, India and the United States could each face more than 1 million tonnes of retired panels a year starting in 2043 and more than 2 million tonnes by 2048.
◆ More than 80% of the solar panels projected to reach end of life through 2050 would enter the waste stream between 2040 and 2050.
Note: The figures are projections under IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, not forecasts of current-policy outcomes. The recovery figures represent technical potential rather than expected collection or revenue, and the market-value estimates use average material prices from 2022 through 2024.
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Materials recovered from retired solar panels could have an annual market value of more than $20 billion by 2050, according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency.
The projected annual value rises from more than $810 million in 2030 to $6 billion in 2040 before surpassing the $20 billion threshold at mid-century.
The potential market includes aluminium, silver, silicon, copper, glass and polymers recovered as solar photovoltaic panels are dismantled and recycled.
Aluminium and silver could drive most of the value
Aluminium could account for nearly half of the market value of recovered solar-panel materials in 2050.
Silver would provide another 33%, followed by silicon at 11% and copper at 7%.
The distribution by value differs sharply from the distribution by weight.
Glass and polymers are projected to represent more than 75% of recovered material by weight, but their lower prices mean they would contribute only a small share of the total market value.
Glass alone is expected to make up 64% of recovered material. Polymers would account for 13%, while aluminium would represent 9%.
Material recovery could reach 24 million tonnes a year
IRENA estimates that the technical potential for material recovery could exceed 920,000 tonnes annually in 2030.
That total could rise to 7.6 million tonnes in 2040 and 24 million tonnes in 2050.
The calculation assumes an overall recycling rate equal to approximately 97% of a solar module’s weight. It represents what could technically be recovered rather than the amount the industry will necessarily collect and process.
Silver recovery alone could rise from approximately 390 tonnes a year in 2030 to 2,500 tonnes in 2040 and more than 8,200 tonnes in 2050.
China, the European Union and the United States are projected to account for almost half of the global material-recovery potential by mid-century.
The retirement wave will accelerate in the 2040s
The potential materials market depends on a rapidly expanding stream of retired solar panels.
Global cumulative end-of-life panels could surpass 200 million tonnes by 2050, while the annual waste stream could rise above 25 million tonnes.
More than 80% of all panels projected to reach end of life through 2050 would do so between 2040 and 2050.
The waste generated during the five years from 2045 through 2050 could be greater than the total generated before 2045.
The expected retirement wave follows the rapid deployment behind solar’s growing role in global electricity generation.
Four major markets face million-tonne waste streams
China, the European Union, India and the United States could each face more than 1 million tonnes of retired panels annually starting in 2043.
Annual volumes in each market are projected to exceed 2 million tonnes by 2048.
China could have more than 58 million tonnes of cumulative retired panels by 2050. Its annual waste stream could reach 6.4 million tonnes.
The European Union could exceed 25 million tonnes cumulatively and 2.2 million tonnes annually.
The United States could reach 23 million tonnes cumulatively and more than 3 million tonnes a year, while India’s annual total could exceed 2.6 million tonnes.
The report estimates solar-panel waste could represent more than 21% of all global e-waste by weight in 2050, up from less than 1% currently.
Existing collection systems remain limited
Most countries do not yet have regulations designed specifically for end-of-life solar panels.
IRENA reports that most retired panels are currently sent to landfills with other electronic waste, with China, the European Union and several developed markets among the main exceptions.
The European Union collected 58,474 tonnes of retired solar panels in 2023, more than three times the 18,986 tonnes reported in 2019.
More than 86% of the panels collected in the bloc from 2019 through 2023 were recycled or prepared for reuse.
Future volumes would be much larger.
IRENA estimates that transporting the global waste stream projected for 2035 could require about 120,000 heavy-truck trips.
At least 150 medium-sized recycling facilities, each capable of processing 20,000 tonnes a year, would also be needed to handle that annual volume.
✦ Why it matters ✦
The projected $20 billion market could turn retired solar panels into a significant source of industrial raw materials rather than treating them only as waste.
Recovered aluminium, silver, silicon and copper could supplement newly mined supplies. That could reduce demand for virgin materials and some of the environmental effects associated with mining and processing.
The economic potential is not guaranteed revenue.
Panels must first be identified, collected, transported and processed by facilities capable of separating materials at a commercially workable cost.
High-value metals could help support recycling economics, but most of a panel’s physical weight consists of lower-value glass and polymers.
Governments and manufacturers would also need systems that assign financial responsibility for retired panels and track them through collection and treatment.
IRENA identifies extended producer responsibility as one policy option. These systems place financial or operational responsibility for a product’s end-of-life management on producers or importers.
The report also identifies landfill restrictions, treatment standards, testing for reusable panels and improved waste-tracking systems as possible policy measures.
The scale of the opportunity therefore depends not only on how many panels retire, but also on whether collection networks, treatment capacity and markets for secondary materials develop in time.
ⓘ How to read the projections
The waste figures are based on the solar capacity required under IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario.
The model uses an average panel lifetime of 25 years and allows for early failures and the replacement of older panels with more efficient equipment.
Actual waste volumes could change if solar deployment, panel lifetimes, failure rates or replacement practices differ from the scenario.
The 24 million-tonne recovery figure is a technical potential based on recycling approximately 97% of module weight. It is not a forecast that 97% of all retired panels will be collected.
The market-value calculation uses average material prices recorded from 2022 through 2024.
Material prices, processing costs and demand for recycled products could be substantially different by 2050, so the $20 billion estimate should be treated as a scenario-based valuation rather than guaranteed future income.
