Key Stats

• Accelerated heat-pump deployment could reduce Europe’s natural-gas use by up to 39 billion cubic metres a year by 2035.
• The IEA estimates additional annual gas savings of 14 billion cubic metres under current policies and 27 billion cubic metres under stated policies.
• The maximum 39 billion cubic metres would equal about 16% of Europe’s current net gas imports.
• Heat pumps already avoided an estimated 20 billion cubic metres of European gas use in 2024.
• Estimated gas savings from heat pumps across Europe, China and Japan reached a combined 53 billion cubic metres in 2025.

Note: The 2035 figures are scenario-based estimates. The highest estimate assumes European and UK heat-pump targets are achieved and deployment trends continue through 2035.

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Faster heat-pump deployment could reduce Europe’s natural-gas use by as much as 39 billion cubic metres a year by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency’s Heat Pump Monitor 2026.

That would equal about 16% of Europe’s current net gas imports, strengthening the region’s ability to manage international price swings and supply disruptions.

The outcome depends heavily on policy and installation rates. The IEA estimates Europe would avoid an additional 14 billion cubic metres a year under current policies and 27 billion cubic metres under stated government plans.

Reaching 39 billion cubic metres would require a more than threefold expansion of Europe’s heat-pump stock. It assumes that European and UK deployment targets are achieved and that progress continues at a similar rate through 2035.

Heat pumps are already reducing gas demand

The projected savings build on reductions already attributed to installed heat pumps.

The IEA estimates that European gas consumption for heating buildings would have been 20 billion cubic metres higher in 2024 if existing heat pumps had instead been replaced with gas boilers.

That represents a 12% increase over the gas demand that was recorded for building heating.

Across Europe, China and Japan, estimated gas savings from heat pumps rose to a combined 53 billion cubic metres in 2025.

The comparison includes the natural gas used to produce electricity consumed by heat pumps. It therefore measures net gas savings rather than counting only the fuel displaced inside buildings.

Building gas demand fell 12% in five years

European gas demand in buildings declined by 12% between 2019 and 2024, according to the IEA.

The agency attributes that reduction to a combination of heat-pump adoption, energy-efficiency improvements, milder temperatures and changes following the 2022 energy crisis.

Without heat pumps, the IEA estimates the decline would have been only 3%.

Heating buildings remains Europe’s largest use of natural gas, accounting for around half of total demand. That gives changes in household and commercial heating systems a potentially large effect on imports.

Europe also relied on net imports for about half of its gas supply in 2024, increasing the energy-security significance of lower consumption.

Three scenarios produce different outcomes

The IEA’s Current Policies Scenario includes policies already adopted in legislation and regulation.

Under that pathway, Europe’s heat-pump stock is projected to nearly double by 2035, producing an additional 14 billion cubic metres in annual gas savings.

The Stated Policies Scenario also includes announced measures and policies in advanced planning, although it does not assume every government target will automatically be reached.

In that scenario, Europe’s heat-pump stock reaches about 2.5 times its current level, raising additional annual gas savings to 27 billion cubic metres.

The accelerated case assumes that targets under REPowerEU and the United Kingdom’s heat-pump plans are met through 2030, with the resulting deployment trend continuing until 2035.

That pathway produces the report’s maximum estimate of 39 billion cubic metres a year.

Europe’s heat-pump market has returned to growth

Europe accounts for more than 20% of global heat-pump sales by capacity, making it one of the technology’s largest regional markets.

France, Italy and Germany recorded the highest unit sales in Europe in 2025. Norway, Finland and Sweden had the largest number of installations relative to their household totals.

The market has nevertheless been volatile.

Sales grew by double digits in 2022 as energy-security concerns intensified, before weakening in 2023 and declining across much of Europe in 2024.

The IEA reports that the market returned to growth in 2025, with particularly strong gains in Germany and Sweden.

That recovery continued into the first quarter of 2026, but the report says past fluctuations show that demand remains sensitive to incentives, regulations and energy prices.

Upfront costs remain a barrier

Heat pumps are generally three to five times more efficient than natural-gas boilers, but their initial purchase and installation costs are usually higher.

Whether the investment pays back over the equipment’s lifetime depends heavily on the price of electricity relative to gas.

European installation costs can sometimes match or exceed the price of the equipment itself. Differences in buildings, existing heating systems and labour requirements make standardised installation more difficult.

The report also identifies shortages of qualified heating, ventilation and plumbing workers as a constraint.

Nearly 800,000 people worldwide work principally on heat pumps, an increase of 50% since 2015. Installation, repair and manufacturing account for almost three-quarters of those jobs.

Europe faces a particular skills challenge because many homes use water-based heating. Boiler installers may need additional training in electricity, heat-pump mechanics, refrigerants and safety standards.

More electric heating adds pressure to power systems

Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps reduces direct fuel use but increases electricity demand, particularly during cold periods.

Across the major markets examined by the IEA, heat pumps currently account for about 2% to 16% of peak electricity demand.

The report says their system-level contribution remains manageable, although local effects can be larger and grids must be prepared for winter demand.

Heat pumps can also provide flexibility when combined with insulated buildings, hot-water storage and digital controls. Electricity consumption can be shifted away from expensive or heavily loaded periods without immediately reducing indoor temperatures.

That flexibility connects the gas-security question to electricity prices, grid investment and the availability of generation during cold weather.

Why it matters

Europe’s exposure to imported gas means that changes in heating demand can affect household costs, trade balances and energy security.

Heat pumps cannot remove that exposure alone. Building insulation, industrial fuel use, district heating and electricity-system investment also influence how much gas the region consumes.

The IEA’s figures nevertheless indicate that heating technology could make a measurable difference.

The gap between 14 billion and 39 billion cubic metres also shows that deployment is not determined by technology alone. Electricity prices, upfront costs, installer capacity and policy stability will help decide which pathway Europe follows.

The estimates are not guarantees

The 2035 results are scenario projections rather than predictions of a single likely future.

Current Policies, Stated Policies and the accelerated target case use different assumptions about regulations, incentives and the speed of installation.

Actual gas savings could also be affected by weather, building renovations, heat-pump efficiency, electricity generation and changes in consumer heating behaviour.

The report’s central finding is therefore conditional: Europe has the technical and market opportunity to cut gas consumption substantially, but the scale of the reduction depends on how quickly heat pumps are installed and supported.