Key Stats

• Global electric-car sales are forecast to reach 23 million and account for 29% of all new-car sales in 2026.
• Electric-car sales are expected to grow by around 10% this year, while total global car sales fall by about 2%.
• More than 9 million electric cars were sold worldwide in the first half of 2026, representing 24% of total car sales.
• Chinese electric-car exports increased by more than 120% in the first half of 2026, while over 1 million exports during the past 18 months had not yet appeared in overseas sales registrations.
• Electric-car sales in Europe rose by 30% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year.

Note: The full-year 2026 figures are IEA estimates based on market trends through the first half of the year. Electric cars include battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models.

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Electric cars are expected to account for 29% of all new cars sold worldwide in 2026, even as the overall car market contracts, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

The IEA forecasts global electric-car sales will rise by around 10% to 23 million this year. Total car sales, by contrast, are expected to finish about 2% below their 2025 level.

The divergence suggests electrification is continuing to gain market share despite economic pressure on consumers, weaker demand in the two largest car markets and uncertainty surrounding fuel prices and government policy.

Electric-car sales rebounded in the second quarter

More than 9 million electric cars were sold worldwide during the first half of 2026, although that was about 1% fewer than during the same period last year.

The wider car market performed more poorly. Total global car sales fell by around 5% year over year during the first six months, driven mainly by declines in China and the United States.

Electric cars still represented 24% of all cars sold, one percentage point more than in the first half of 2025.

The quarterly figures also showed a sharp improvement after a weak start to the year. More than 5 million electric cars were sold in the second quarter, up 35% from the first quarter and 4% from a year earlier.

That rebound nearly offset the first-quarter decline and led the IEA to increase its full-year EV market-share estimate by one percentage point from the forecast issued in May.

Europe and emerging markets drive growth

Europe recorded the fastest first-half growth among the major electric-car markets, with sales rising 30% from the same period of 2025.

Electric cars accounted for more than 30% of European Union car sales during the first half of the year. Their share reached 38% in the United Kingdom.

Germany recorded about 140,000 additional electric-car sales compared with the first half of 2025. The United Kingdom added 100,000, France 95,000, Italy 75,000 and Spain 40,000.

The expansion comes as affordability remains a major issue for buyers, a theme examined in StatsJournalist’s recent analysis of Germany’s electric-car market.

Growth was even faster across several newer markets.

Outside China, Europe and the United States, electric-car sales rose by around 75% in the first half of 2026. Sales more than doubled in Latin America, increased by more than 90% in India and rose 75% in Southeast Asia.

African electric-car sales also more than doubled, although the total remained comparatively small at just over 30,000 vehicles.

Australia, Brazil, India, Korea and Viet Nam each sold more than 100,000 electric cars during the first half. Their sales from March through June were roughly double the levels recorded during the same months of 2025.

The United States moved in the opposite direction.

Second-quarter US electric-car sales exceeded 275,000, up 20% from the first quarter but about 25% below the same quarter last year. Electric cars averaged around 7% of US car sales, down from an average of 10% in 2025.

China turns to exports as domestic sales fall

China remained the most important source of uncertainty in the global forecast.

Total car sales in the country fell by more than 20% in the first half of 2026, amounting to about 2.5 million fewer vehicles than a year earlier. Electric-car sales declined by slightly less than 20%.

Electric vehicles nevertheless accounted for more than 60% of Chinese car sales in the second quarter. The IEA expects their share to remain above 60% for the full year, even if the number sold stays close to the 2025 total of 13.2 million.

Chinese manufacturers increasingly turned to international markets as domestic demand weakened.

China’s total car exports rose by 65% in the first half of the year, helping limit the decline in domestic production to around 6%.

Electric-car exports increased by more than 120%, fully compensating manufacturers for the fall in domestic EV sales. Electric vehicles rose from slightly more than 35% of Chinese car exports in 2025 to more than 45% in the first half of 2026.

Exports, however, grew more quickly than overseas registrations.

The IEA estimates that more than 1 million electric cars exported from China during the past 18 months had not yet been recorded as sales in destination countries.

Long shipping times explain part of the difference. The report says the size of the gap also indicates that inventories may be accumulating in some markets, creating uncertainty over when the cars will be sold and at what prices.

Competition shifts toward batteries and software

The growth of electric cars is changing which manufacturers control the global market.

Established carmakers focused mainly on combustion-engine vehicles still accounted for close to 90% of all car sales in 2025. Their share of the electric-car segment was much lower, at around 55%.

Newer manufacturers focused on electric vehicles captured about 45% of EV sales, up from less than 35% in 2019.

That difference could become increasingly important as China and other emerging economies expand. The IEA projects those markets will account for almost 60% of global car demand by 2035.

The industrial transition also changes the components that carry the most value.

Around one-quarter of an electric car’s value is linked to its battery, while demand is shifting away from engines and gearboxes toward batteries, electronics, critical minerals and software.

China holds a leading position across much of this supply chain. The IEA estimates that Chinese manufacturers’ production costs are around 35% lower than those in advanced economies.

That advantage reflects manufacturing scale, integrated battery supply chains and technological capacity. It also adds to the pressure facing established manufacturers in Europe, North America, Japan and Korea.

The battery-centered transition intersects with other vulnerabilities, including the rare-earth supply risks facing car manufacturers.

Why it matters

Road vehicles account for nearly half of global oil use, making car markets important to energy security as well as industrial policy.

Higher electric-car sales can reduce exposure to oil-price swings in importing countries. At the same time, greater reliance on batteries, electronics and concentrated manufacturing networks creates a different set of trade and supply-chain risks.

The shift also matters for employment.

More than 10 million people work in car manufacturing worldwide, with China and the European Union together accounting for nearly half of employment, production and value added.

The report warns that automation, changing component demand and stronger competition could put some established manufacturing regions under pressure. It does not estimate how many jobs will be lost or created as the transition proceeds.

The forecast remains uncertain

The IEA’s 23 million sales estimate is a forecast rather than a final count.

It is based on trends observed through the first half of 2026, data from industry and regional sources, and expectations about economic conditions and policy support during the rest of the year.

China’s car-market recovery is the largest constraint on the global projection. Changes in incentives, fuel prices, trade restrictions or consumer demand could also alter regional results.

The first-half figures nevertheless show that electric cars gained market share during a weak period for the wider industry.

Whether that growth translates into profitable sales, lower consumer prices and sustainable manufacturing employment will depend partly on how quickly automakers adjust to the shift in demand, technology and global trade.