Key Stats

• An Asia–Middle East jet fuel benchmark was 50% above its pre-Strait-closure level, down from a 109% peak.
• The U.S. jet fuel benchmark remained 31% above its pre-closure level after peaking at 74%.
• Sulphuric acid prices in Northeast Asia were up 106%, the sharpest current increase in the briefing’s dashboard.
• Diesel-related benchmarks were 48% higher in the U.S., 45% higher for Singapore gasoil and 38% higher in Europe.
• Gulf exporters account for about 60% of global naphtha exports, 49% of urea exports and 45% of sulphur exports.

Note: The figures are selected regional commodity benchmarks measured against levels before the Strait of Hormuz closure. They are not consumer prices or components of a single global price index.

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An Asia–Middle East jet fuel benchmark remained 50% above its level before the Strait of Hormuz closure, according to a new Oxford Economics research briefing.

The benchmark had previously climbed as much as 109%, while a U.S. jet fuel benchmark remained 31% above its pre-closure level after reaching a 74% peak.

Oxford Economics expects renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and reduced shipping through the Strait to increase supply-chain stress in the near term. It also expects that stress to remain more elevated than it had previously anticipated.

The briefing says acute physical supply pressure will be concentrated more heavily in Asia. Effects in Europe and the United States are expected to be smaller and driven more by prices.

Jet fuel and diesel benchmarks remain elevated

Gulf producers account for an estimated 20% of global jet fuel exports, according to the briefing.

Oxford Economics describes short-term substitution as very limited because alternative aviation fuels face high costs and capacity constraints. It identifies air transport and military and defence activity as the main exposed sectors.

Diesel-related benchmarks also remained substantially above their pre-closure levels.

The U.S. benchmark was 48% higher, while Singapore gasoil was up 45% and the European benchmark was 38% higher.

Those increases were below their earlier peaks of 60% in the United States, 126% for Singapore gasoil and 80% in Europe.

Oxford Economics says Russia’s diesel export ban has added another disruption to an already strained market for middle-distillate fuels.

Higher diesel costs can affect road transport, agriculture, construction, mining, rail and marine freight because those activities have few immediate alternatives to diesel-powered equipment.

Sulphuric acid records the sharpest increase

Sulphuric acid prices in Northeast Asia have risen 106%, the largest current increase among the regional benchmarks in the briefing.

The corresponding increases were 42.4% in North America and 16.6% in Europe.

Oxford Economics links the Asian increase to dependence on Middle Eastern supplies combined with China’s export ban. Gulf producers account for an estimated 45% of global sulphur exports.

Sulphuric acid is used in nickel, cobalt and copper processing, as well as phosphate fertilizer production.

The briefing says substitution is limited in metals mining and fertilizer production, although some industrial processes can use alternatives or recycled sulphur.

Price pressure is not uniform

The dashboard does not show a broad increase across every commodity and region.

A Middle Eastern naphtha benchmark was 47% above its pre-closure level, but the increases were only 2% in Northeast Asia, 4% in Europe and 9% in North America.

Current urea benchmarks were below their pre-closure levels, despite Gulf countries accounting for an estimated 49% of global exports.

The Ukraine bulk benchmark was down 4%, while the U.S. free-on-board benchmark was down 18%.

Helium prices were also below their earlier levels in the regions tracked. The briefing reports declines of 19% in Northeast Asia and 29% in both North America and Europe.

Oxford Economics says strategic inventories in the United States and Germany continue to provide the helium market with a buffer. China’s announced helium export controls and further disruption through the Strait could nevertheless create renewed upward pressure.

Why it matters

Jet fuel and diesel are direct operating costs for aviation, freight, farming, construction and mining.

Sulphuric acid and naphtha sit further upstream but feed into metals, fertilizers, chemicals, plastics, packaging, textiles and vehicle manufacturing.

That means supply disruptions can spread beyond energy markets even when crude-oil prices are not the only pressure point.

The briefing does not estimate how much of the increase will reach consumers or how large the effect on production will be. Its evidence instead identifies which inputs, regions and industries appear most exposed.

The outlook depends on continued disruption

Oxford Economics’ assessment assumes a more drawn-out conflict and a lasting reduction in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The price path could differ if shipping conditions, export restrictions or regional supply patterns change. The findings should therefore be read as an industry-risk assessment based on Oxford Economics’ current assumptions rather than a guaranteed forecast.