U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.536 billion bushels for the 2026/27 season, its lowest level since 1970/71, according to the USDA’s July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The forecast is 7 million bushels below the June estimate and about 23% lower than the estimated 1.985-billion-bushel crop in 2025/26.
USDA also reduced projected wheat ending stocks by 22 million bushels from last month to 722 million bushels. That would leave stocks 22% below the previous season.
Smaller acreage drives the wheat decline
Farmers are expected to harvest 32.1 million acres of wheat, down from 37.2 million acres in 2025/26.
The national yield forecast increased to 47.9 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the June projection. The higher yield was not enough to offset the smaller harvested area.
Winter wheat production was lowered by 39 million bushels to 990 million bushels, mainly because of reductions in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat.
Other spring wheat production is projected at 475 million bushels, while durum production is forecast at 71 million bushels. USDA attributed both declines to reduced harvested area, with lower yields also affecting durum.
The season-average farm price forecast remains $6.00 per bushel, compared with an estimated $5.06 in 2025/26.
Corn stocks fall as exports rise
The July outlook also cut projected U.S. corn ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion bushels.
Beginning stocks were lowered by 125 million bushels to 2 billion bushels after USDA raised its estimate of corn used for animal feed and other residual purposes during 2025/26.
Feed and residual use was increased by 150 million bushels. USDA said disappearance during the first three quarters of the marketing year exceeded 5.6 billion bushels, up from about 4.8 billion during the same period a year earlier.
Projected 2026/27 exports were raised by 50 million bushels because of expectations for continued global demand. The average farm price forecast remained $4.40 per bushel.
Globally, corn stocks were reduced by 6 million metric tons to 275.3 million tons. Production forecasts were lowered for the European Union and Kenya, partly offset by a larger forecast for Canada.
U.S. rice output drops nearly 13%
USDA made an even larger monthly percentage revision to rice, cutting projected U.S. production by nearly 13% to 153.3 million hundredweight.
The reduction followed new acreage estimates showing that producers planted less rice, particularly in the Delta region, where USDA said unfavorable prices encouraged farmers to choose other crops.
Projected rice ending stocks were cut by 28% from June to 30.9 million hundredweight.
Tighter supplies pushed the projected average farm price up by $1.40 to $14.90 per hundredweight. Imports were increased, while forecasts for domestic use and exports were lowered.
Global grain stocks also tighten
Worldwide grain production for 2026/27 is projected at 2.949 billion metric tons, down 3.27 million tons from the June forecast.
Global ending stocks for wheat, coarse grains and rice combined were reduced by nearly 9 million tons to 771.6 million tons.
World wheat stocks were cut by 2.6 million tons to 272.8 million tons, while projected consumption rose to 826.2 million tons.
Why it matters
The forecasts do not directly predict retail food prices, but smaller inventories can leave agricultural markets with less capacity to absorb poor harvests, trade disruptions or additional weather damage.
The figures are projections and will change as USDA receives new information on yields, acreage, exports and demand. The department updates WASDE monthly, with the next report scheduled for August 12, 2026.
