BHP, the world’s largest mining company, has released its Economic and Commodity Outlook.

The report shows resilience in key metals, challenges in energy markets, and a mixed recovery in China. It highlights shifting global dynamics as inflation and geopolitical tensions persist.

Despite China’s real estate struggles, global steel production rose 0.1% to 1.89 billion tonnes in 2023, with China exceeding 1 billion tonnes for the fifth year.

Iron ore prices averaged $121 per tonne, a 20% year-on-year increase fueled by non-housing solid demand.

Copper prices averaged $8,258 per tonne, up 5% year over year, driven by Chinese demand and renewable energy investment.

Nickel faced a 20% decline, with oversupply from battery production dragging prices to $18,808 per tonne.

Uranium surged past $100 per pound in early 2024, reflecting rising demand for nuclear energy.

Potash, however, saw prices fall 55% year-on-year, with an average of $309 per tonne amid oversupply and weak agricultural demand.

China’s GDP grew 5.2% in 2023, but the recovery remains fragile, particularly in the real estate sector, where housing starts fell by 20.4%.

Infrastructure investment grew by 8.2%, and electric vehicle production jumped 35.8%, cementing China’s role as a top EV exporter.

BHP is optimistic about long-term demand, which is driven by population growth and urbanization.

By 2030, the global population is expected to reach 8.5 billion, with urban areas seeing an influx of 0.8 billion people.

BHP warned of risks from “greenflation,” rising production costs, and geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains.

Resource nationalism and carbon pricing are also expected to increase costs in mining-heavy regions.

BHP will focus on sustainable, high-quality assets and capital-efficient growth to navigate these challenges.

The company remains confident that its diversified portfolio, including copper, nickel, potash, and steel-making materials, is well-positioned to thrive in a decarbonizing world.